Science Education Does Not Ensure Healthy Skepticism

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Many skeptics take a measured amount of pleasure in the kinds of tasks often set before them: evaluating blurry photographs, conducting laboratory experiments that reduce or eliminate trickery, critiquing flawed science and pseudoscience, and countering the claims of obvious charlatans. Of course, skeptics hope that their efforts aid in advancing science education. In spite of these efforts, survey data from several sources suggests that paranormal belief and pseudoscientific thinking continue to be commonplace.

Skeptics often use these findings to reinforce arguments for more science education. Their argument is based upon the largely untested assumption that increased science knowledge reduces the number of paranormal beliefs an individual holds. However, this assumption may not be valid. Andrew Ede recently argued that science education may do little to raise the level of rational thinking and may, in fact, actually deter it! Recent debates about including creation science and/or eliminating evolution from high school biology curricula are a case in point indicating that many policy makers, members of the public, and a few educators are confused about how to critique and compare theories in order to separate facts from beliefs. Ede identified three reasons why this may be true:

Science classes, broadly defined, primarily teach technical skills rather than emphasizing critical thinking. Labs are conducted in which there is a “right answer” that the instructor knows, and it is up to the student to manipulate the project until the “right answer” is realized.

Science classes typically review research findings without placing the research in the proper context. This can lead to incorrect assumptions or overgeneralizations.

Science implicitly emphasizes its elite status over other points of view. Therefore, data and graphs are accepted uncritically because they are based on “scientific,” “clinical,” or “laboratory” studies. A lab coat guarantees an aura of expertise.

The overall result is that teaching scientific “facts” is emphasized, while individuals are not given the skills with which to critically evaluate the claims that are presented to them. People are placed in the position of accepting or rejecting claims based on what they are told to believe, rather than being able to critically evaluate the evidence.

A quick inspection of introductory college textbooks supports Ede’s basic arguments. As an example, most introductory psychology texts are now in excess of 500 pages, yet fewer than 15 pages are typically spent on research issues. Little or no discussion is given to the importance of evidence or how scientific methods can be used to weigh evidence. Instead, the primary emphasis of many texts is to enumerate as many scientific findings as possible. Since it is reasonable to suspect that many instructors follow the basic format of the text that has been selected for class, it is likely that class lectures spend more time on specific research findings than on the more abstract topics of empiricism and skepticism. Hence, it is possible for a student to accumulate a fairly sizable science knowledge base without learning how to properly distinguish between reputable science and pseudoscience. Fortunately, there is recently a stronger push in introductory psychology texts to correct this oversight, most strikingly by Carole Wade and Carol Tavris,7 but it still remains the exception to the rule.

Buy Likes On Facebook – Google Prefers Facebook Comments, Shares, Likes Over Keywords

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Following the Panda and Penguin search algorithms, social shares have become more important than keywords. The data prove it. In a recent in depth analysis of Google ranking variables, this became one of the important takeaways.

The analysis gathered data using ten’s of thousands of top keywords, 1000s of websites, and millions of tweets, shares and links. The ranking sites’ material included millions of Facebook comments, over a billion shares and billions of likes. The goal was fundamental: Which things are essential nowadays to achieve prime ranking in Google search listings?

Based on the data, social signals correlate strongly with high Google rankings. Several of the top half a dozen signals are social, including Facebook shares, Facebook comments, Facebook Likes, and tweets. Backlinks were the only non-social ranking aspect in the top half a dozen. Facebook, Twitter, and Google+ at this time clearly associate with high listings in Google’s index. Below are some additional central highlights within the study.

Inside the report, the effect of brand name isn’t only evident – it will turn traditional search engine optimization reasoning upside down. Formidable brands rank within the top five even without totally conforming to page architectures, which provides the impression that headlines, title tags, etc. don’t seem to be nearly as important to search engine optimization as it is to people in the SEO trenches.

Websites with domains with keywords clearly correlate to raised search rankings, much more so than keywords in the rest of the URL. The H1 headline and title, not as much – so very little, in fact, that this report concludes that they have little effect on search engine positioning.

Pages with an excess of ads experience a more difficult time achieving high Google rankings. This is understandable, as in 2012 Google declared that it would reprimand websites featuring a lot of ads towards the top of the page. The study discovered that both AdSense and Adblocks had an adverse result on Google serch engine postioning.

In basic terms, this information tells us that social signals have a important effect on search engine optimization results. That suggests you ought to ensure that the content you’re producing interests your audience and motivates them to share it as frequently and as widely as is possible. Additionally, it suggests that Facebook Likes are quite important and relevant, and you should take actions to ensure you are receiving Likes. This will likely indicate that you need to buy likes on Facebook.

The takeaway is this: Social media is having an increasingly potent effect on Search engines. In handling a business, the first thing must be to create rich and premium quality material for your web site. Subsequently, deliver it all through the social media channels you have developed.

The Placebo Effect

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Jane D. was a regular visitor to our ER, usually showing up late at night demanding an injection of the narcotic Demerol, the only thing that worked for her severe headaches. One night the staff psychiatrist had the nurse give her an injection of saline instead. It worked! He told Jane she had responded to a placebo, discussed the implications, and thought he’d helped her understand that her problem was psychological. But as he was leaving the room, Jane asked, “Can I get that new medicine again next time instead of the Demerol? It really worked great!”

What’s going on here? What is the placebo effect and how does it work?

The term “placebo effect” is unfortunate; it leads to misunderstandings. Placebos themselves don’t have any effect. They are inert: that’s what placebo means. The word placebo comes from the Latin for “I please.” You can think of it as the opposite of “I benefit.” What we really mean by “the placebo effect” is not some mysterious effect from giving an inert treatment, but the complex web of psychosocial effects surrounding medical treatment. Those effects occur with effective treatments too, not just with inert treatments.

Mark Crislip, MD, thinks the placebo effect is a myth. “I think that the placebo effect with pain is a mild example of cognitive behavioral therapy; the pain stays the same, it is the emotional response that is altered … Ain’t no such thing as a placebo effect, only a change in perception.”1 He’s correct in saying that the placebo effect does nothing to change the pain signals in the nerves. But most people think the change in perception is the placebo effect and is worth pursuing.

There is a big difference between pain and suffering. A woman’s labor pains hurt, but with a joyful end in sight she may not suffer as much as a man who has milder pain sensations but is worried that his injured leg may need to be amputated. Some people say that morphine doesn’t relieve pain so much as make you not care about it. The experience of pain and the meaning of pain for the patient matter as much as the strength of the pain stimulus. If the placebo effect can do anything to divert the patient’s attention or help him reframe the meaning of his pain, his altered perception can reduce his experience of suffering.

In 1955, Dr. Henry Beecher published a seminal paper entitled “The Powerful Placebo” in the Journal of the American Medical Association.2 He reviewed studies that compared an active treatment to a placebo, and found that on average 35% of patients improved with the placebo. So any study that doesn’t have a placebo group for comparison is likely to give a false positive result. The placebo-controlled trial is now one of the cornerstones of medical science. It’s not enough to show that Miracle-mycin works; we have to show that it works better than a dummy pill that looks like Miracle-mycin but only contains sugar.

Beecher’s paper has been widely cited as evidence that 35% of patients respond to placebos, but that’s not really what it showed. He wasn’t measuring the placebo effect in isolation — he was actually measuring a combination of the placebo effect, the natural course of disease, and other factors. The patients who apparently responded to placebo included patients who showed improvement for other reasons. Reasons like spontaneous improvement, fluctuation of symptoms, regression to the mean, answers of politeness, experimental subordination, conditioned answers, misjudgment, etc.

To tease out how much of that 35% should be attributable to placebo, we need to know how many patients might have reported improvement without any treatment. In 2001 two Danish researchers, Asbjorn Hrobjartsson and Peter Gotzsche, published a paper entitled “Is the Placebo Powerless?” in the New England Journal of Medicine.3 They reviewed studies that included a no-treatment group, and they compared the improvement with placebos to the improvement with no treatment. They “found little evidence in general that placebos had powerful clinical effects.”

For studies with a binary outcome (improved versus not improved) there was no significant difference between the placebo and no treatment groups. For studies with continuous outcomes, there was some apparent effect of placebo; but not so for objective outcomes that could be measured by someone else, such as blood pressure, but only for subjective outcomes that depended on self-reports, such as pain. They weren’t even sure about that, however, because the effect was greater in smaller trials, indicating possible bias.

It’s hard to reconcile a study like this with what we know about placebos from experiences like the case of Jane D. They do seem to work, and they seem to work very dramatically at times.

In a study of pain after dental surgery, patients were given either intravenous morphine or a saline placebo. If they were told that the saline was a powerful new painkiller, they got just as much relief as the patients who received morphine. In another study, all patients were given morphine for post-op pain, but only half were told they were getting it. The patients who didn’t know they were getting it only experienced half as much pain relief. In a study of acupuncture for post-op dental pain, there was no difference between the “real” acupuncture and placebo “sham” acupuncture groups, but when they asked patients which group they thought they were in, they discovered that those who believed they were in the “real” group reported significantly more pain relief than those who believed they were in the “sham” group — regardless of which group they were actually in!

St. Louis Remodeling Trends Which Have Stood the Test of Time

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A weak financial state prompted numerous homeowners to take a fresh look at their real estate predicaments. Even while housing market conditions move slightly brighter, many homeowners nevertheless choose to stay still and update their existing residences rather than marketing at lower prices. On many occasions, these choices are monetarily motivated and inspired by the times, however the below remodeling trends may be here to stay.

Regardless of what remodeling job you’re considering, it is very important to ensure that you have the finest remodeling provider restoring your property. For St Louis remodeling you want a complete service remodeling company that is located in your local area of St Louis.

In-law apartments
Builders and remodelers are discovering increased interest in what’s often referred to as in-law apartments (typically referred to as mother-in-law suites whether mom will be the only resident or not) as part of new add ons or basement makeovers. The first waves of baby boomers have reached their golden years and families have become inventive with longer-term care solutions. For some households, this is ultimately a lower-cost solution than assisted-living or nursing home care.

According to the National Association of Home Builders, over sixty percent of building contractors contacted were found to be doing a home remodeling relating to aging in 2011. About 1 in four building contractors incorporated an ground-level bedroom. AARP is cooperating with builders for a certification for Certified Aging in Place Specialists, who are trained in planning and altering structures for the aged. About 3,000 builders, contractors, architects and remodelers have been certified.

There’s another variance amongst the generations within many households. A poor employment market has in some cases placed grown children (and often their families) back at mom and dad’s place, too. Prolonged stays frequently bring on a phone call to a builder. Given demographic tendencies, these remodels provide resale potential and are no longer seen as a style burden and deal-breaker for possible buyers. Be sure you follow municipal building codes.

Out-of-doors living spaces
Flourishing economic periods generated luxurious exterior living — pricy organic stone hardscapes, fine cooking kitchens, and serious electrical improvements. The recession might have clipped this spot of the remodeling industry, however the idea survives. In truth, paying for outdoor living settings has ended up a serious component of even budget-minded renovations within current house footprints. Families might be scaling back their wish list, but they are not curtailing outside entertaining and family time. Naturally, if families are vacationing much less, they are playing far more at their house.

Customized kitchens
Customized doesn’t always have to mean super costly — it can suggest you’re in and out of the kitchen in less time. The peak of the building rise included symbolic real estate phrases including “high-end appliances,” “granite,” pre-packaged cabinet “suites,” and more. It isn’t that folks at this point want low-quality kitchens, they are simply going towards more customization. Some are putting more in utility rooms and pantries to maintain the “guts” of the operation undercover. They’re giving up dedicated food-prep area to opt for larger sized eating and family room areas. Many are deciding on open shelving and islands that do much of the heavy lifting, with lots of storage. Kitchens are looking, and will continue to look, much less like a work area and a lot more like an extension of the living area.

2012 – Revisiting 2011 Psychic Predictions

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Early in 2011 we examined the Psychic predictions of Mr. John Gold, one of Australia’s most respected psychics. Mr Gold was notable for making some quite specific predictions for the year ahead, which would have been sensational had they panned out.

Usually psychics will throw out a bunch of generic and non-specific “predictions” which can easily be retrofitted to reality later … but not Mr Gold. He went out on a series of impressive limbs with specific events and specific times. If even half of those predictions had come true, we might have had a serious contender for the Australian Skeptics’ $100,000 challenge. We are now one year down the track, and it’s definitely worth our time to examine the predictions and see how Mr. Gold did.

Oprah Winfrey will announce her intention to enter politics.

Not a great start. Oprah didn’t make any announcement of this sort in 2011.

Europe will slide back into full-blown recession, resulting in four countries requiring bail-outs by the IMF.

Everyone was predicting recession for Europe in 2011, so this wasn’t a particularly interesting prediction. Even so, it hasn’t (officially) happened, and the IMF hasn’t stepped in with a bailout. But things didn’t improve either, so we could generously argue that Mr. Gold was leaning in the right direction.

Julian Assange will be sentenced to a lengthy term (possibly life) in a US prison on espionage charges.

This didn’t happen, despite being a general expectation at the end of 2010.

Osama bin Laden will be captured sometime between July and October, 2011. He is likely to meet with an unfortunate and deadly “accident” whilst in custody awaiting trial.

Osama bin Laden was killed by US Navy SEALs on May 2, 2011, so this is pretty close. However, he was killed in a non-accidental fashion during the capture operation, so technically never even made it to custody.

An earthquake will rock the east coast of Australia between Christmas Day and January 20.

No, but there were some significant floods.

Another tsunami will wreak havoc in Indonesia resulting in massive loss of life.

There was a major tsunami, but it devastated a different country. As a side note, a tsunami warning was issued for Indonesia as a result of the Japanese earthquake in March, but it had petered out to almost nothing by the time it arrived.

Federal Australian Liberal shadow treasurer Joe Hockey will prove to be a formidable and masterful political animal, making life extremely uncomfortable for Prime Minister Gillard.

This is another none-too-specific prediction, and one that could have been made by just about anyone. While there was a fair amount of discomfort caused to Gillard by the Coalition in 2011, Hockey’s political animalia didn’t cause nearly as much grief as Abbott’s did.

Cricket tragic and former Prime Minister John Howard will be considered for a job in sports administration at an international level.

This prediction followed Mr. Howard’s nomination (and rejection) for the Vice Presidency of the International Cricket Council back in 2010. He may have been considered for some other post in 2011, but it obviously wasn’t big enough news to be reported anywhere.

A long-established Gold Coast councillor will announce his resignation.

Not one single Gold Coast City Councillor has resigned since their election in 2008. The current council list here matches precisely with the 2008 election results here.

Why You Should Be Skeptical of Advice From Experts

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We are constantly bombarded by expert advice from advertisements, books, magazines, TV and the Internet. But how much of this information is actually true? From my experience, there is reason to believe that little of it is accurate. People (often unknowingly) make claims that are exaggerated or in some unfortunate cases, blatant lies.

I remember giving a presentation to a group of eager individuals who were either launching or advancing their speaking careers. During our 90-minute discussion, I provided dozens of tips and techniques for growing their business.

At the end of the evening, one attendee asked, “What is the most important tip?” I thought about this for a minute and replied, “I don’t know.”

Although this answer may sound like a cop out, it is in fact the truth. No one really knows what made them successful. More importantly, they have no idea how others can replicate their success. They may be able to look at a series of events that led to a particular outcome, but most likely the “most important tip” is something completely different than what is seen on the surface.

Several years ago, I attended a “book marketing” conference. It was led by a well-known author who sold millions (and millions) of books. His promise was to share the steps and tools that made him successful so that others could replicate and reap the same rewards. Over the years, thousands of people have tried his “formula,” and as far as I can tell, no one has come even close to his level of success. And those achieving some modicum of success mainly did so by leveraging this author’s name and network.

I am not implying that these experts are misleading or malicious. Not at all. The issue lies in our inability to find the correct correlations between cause and effect. Too many hidden factors play a major role—ones that we might never consider or notice.

Many experts use anecdotal evidence to support their conclusions: It worked for me and a few of my buddies, so it should work for you. This isn’t the most sound reasoning. Maybe the expert’s 10 Steps to Financial Wealth were not the true causes of their success. Maybe success was coincidental. Without more data, it is impossible to know. If 100 people tried the same 10 steps and each got the same results, then you might be able to claim a correlation. While there may be wisdom in anecdotal evidence, you shouldn’t blindly accept it as the truth.

There are many, harder to measure factors that often play a substantial role. Your attitude plays a larger part than you might think. Your Rolodex of contacts (for the younger readers, this is where the old-timers stored our addresses before computers) can be a huge factor in the equation. Being in the right place at the right time has launched many businesses, including Microsoft. Or sometimes, plain old dumb luck is the real cause.

So, how can you separate the accurate from the invalid? One way is to understand the difference between causality, correlation and coincidence.

I recall a study that claimed, “Individuals with greater wealth are happier.” Assuming that this statement is true, it is a correlation. Wealth and happiness are related. However, after reading this, some immediately jump to the conclusion that “money makes people happy.” This statement is causality suggesting that money is the cause of people’s happiness. According to this study though, this is not true. The research indicated that money did not make people happier. Happy people attracted more wealth into their lives. Money is correlated to happiness but is not the cause of happiness.

Beyond causality, correlation and coincidence, there is another factor: conditions. Just because something works for one company does not necessarily mean it will work for yours, even if there truly is a cause and effect relationship. It is important to understand all of the various conditions in which success is cultivated. Although many organizations believe in modeling best practices, I have found that in the vast majority of cases, replicating what other organizations are doing can be counter-productive. What works for Apple will probably not work for you. They have a different culture, different employees, different industry, different leadership, and the list goes on. And the reality is, you will never be able to replicate the exact conditions of one organization within your own organization.

Does this mean you should never listen to an expert? Of course not. There is a lot to be learned from others. But it is wise to avoid taking what an expert has to say at face value. Be skeptical.

Experts may not know the real causes of success. Understanding the difference between causality, correlation, coincidence and conditions can help you listen with a more critical ear and, in turn, make more informed decisions.